Ahead of a final parliamentary vote, the German tobacco industry issued sharp warnings against federal plans to increase taxes on cigarettes, fine-cut tobacco, and e-cigarettes. Industry leaders contend that the steep tax steps will trigger cross-border smuggling and leave projected state revenues unfulfilled.
“The coalition is embarking on a fiscal wrong turn,” said Jan Mücke, managing director of the Federal Association of the Tobacco Industry and Novel Products (BVTE). Mücke stated that historical trends show large price jumps drive consumers to illegal channels and neighboring low-price countries, threatening the government’s target of up to €11.8 billion in additional revenue by 2030.
| Year | Average Cigarette Pack Price (20 units) | E-Liquid Tax Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Current | €8.05 | Current baseline |
| 2026 | €9.10 | €0.38 / ml |
| 2028 | €9.91 | Scheduled interim increase |
| 2029 | €10.81 | Scheduled interim increase |
| 2030 | €11.78 | €0.44 / ml |
The revised bill, adjusted upward by the Bundestag Finance Committee, anticipates an extra €1.5 billion in revenue next year alone, reaching €4.46 billion in additional annual income by 2030. The Green Party dismissed industry smuggling fears as unfounded, pointing to higher prices in Ireland and France, while labeling the German trajectory “somewhat unambitious.”
Public health leaders strongly back the tax pressure. Hendrik Streeck, the Federal Government’s Commissioner on Narcotic Drugs, stated: “From a medical perspective, it is clear: smoking is among the biggest avoidable health risks. In Germany, around 131,000 people die each year directly from tobacco consumption.”
According to the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), smoking causes nearly 20% of new cancer cases and up to 85% of lung cancer deaths. DKFZ data shows that quitting yields fast health recoveries: lung function improves within three days, while heart attack risks match those of non-smokers within five years.